Financial Communique » GDP

The public debt in Eurozone countries will reach 83.3% from their GDP in 2012

Viliyana Filipova — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 19:26:08 +0000

The total debt of 17 countries of the Eurozone in 2012 will reach 83.3 percent of their gross domestic product, announced today by the European Commission. During the crisis period, the value of total debt in the Eurozone grew by about one third. In 2007 the index was over 20 percentage points lower. The data show not only that most euro area countries have exceeded the debt limit in the Stability and Growth 60% of the GDP, but the Eurozone as a whole has long exceeded the limits laid down in its economic base documents. This in turn highlights systemic, not accidental nature of this sovereign debt crisis that year and a half now threatens the existence of a common European currency, according to Russian news agencies.
“In times of high and still rising debt levels in the European Union countries, providing support for public finances is a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth and job creation. EU Strategy for gradual and differentiated fiscal consolidation remains valid against the permanent market storms and uncertainty about the pace of recovery”, said the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said in a message to the EC.
In his words, Member States should focus on meeting objectives and to take further measures if necessary. “This development underlines the need for the fastest adoption of a legislative package to support our economic management,” said the Commissioner.

The Turkish economy reported 8.8% increase in Q2 2011

Viliyana Filipova — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 15:43:34 +0000

Turkey has a higher than expected growth in the second quarter. The growth of the economy by 8.8% yoy but deepening fears that the expansion is unbalanced and puts the country at risk from external shocks, says Financial Times The data published on Monday revealed a decline in the rate of growth compared to the first quarter, but well above market expectations for growth of 6-8%.
“The economic activity is slowing, but the rate of delay may not be sufficient to correct imbalances in the Turkish economy, such as the growing current account deficit”, said Ozgur Altag, chief economist at BGC Partners in Istanbul. Published on Monday also details the current account deficit revealed a hole in the rate of 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country for 12 months until the end of July. The deficit occurred despite the tourism boom in Turkey. Altag indicates that the country is vulnerable to external shocks and the drying up of capital flows, since 60% of the current account deficit is financed by portfolio investment and unidentified items that central banks defined as net errors and omissions.
“These items are the most uncertain way of financing the current account deficit”, he said. “This is an unreliable short-term capital”. Among other factors, economic growth in the second quarter was supported by 13.2 percent expansion in the construction sector, 13% growth in trade and 14.3% increase in the financial sector. The GDP growth in the first quarter was revised upwards to 11.7% from 11%. This means that growth in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year reached 10.2%. Even the growth in the second quarter compared to the first for which the central bank predicts it will be close to zero, was remarkably positive – seasonally weighted growth of 1.3%.

ECB will not increase the interest rate until December 2011

Viliyana Filipova — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 21:36:31 +0000

Barclays Capital said on Friday he expected the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 1.5% until December 2012 when the central bank will probably raise rates by a quarter point. In its previous forecast Barclays expected the ECB to raise interest rates a quarter point in December this year. The revision was announced after the British bank lowered its expectations for the eurozone as a whole. According to Barclays, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone in 2011 will grow by 1.8 percent instead of the originally projected 1.9%. Growth in 2012 even expected to reach only 1.1% instead of 1.6%. The bank analysts, including chief economist Julian Callow of Europe, indicate that even forecast to increase interest rates in December 2012 is “optimistic” and that this step may be postponed.
“There is a risk in the next 12 months, the ECB lowered its main interest rate by half a point, as part of coordinated action by the G-20″, they say. “In taking this step, however, the ECB will need to significantly lower their criteria for assessing the risks of inflation”.

EIB will inverst 1 billion USD in Romania for 2011

Viliyana Filipova — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 12:53:30 +0000

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is to grant Romania loans worth between 800 million and 1 billion for the implementation of ten investment projects this year. Their focus will be on limiting the consequences of climate change, said EIB Vice-President Matthias Kollatz-Ahnen.
“We are optimistic that we will see economic growth in Romania in 2011,” added Kollatz-Ahnen at a press conference in Bucharest yesterday. Romanian economy experienced a decline for two consecutive years, in 2010 gross domestic product shrank by 1.3 per cent and in 2009 – by 7,1 percent. The EIB will support projects in the country that aim to reduce by 50% of electricity consumption in the old blocks built in the years of communism. The other areas to be directed to the EIB investments are energy system, including the rehabilitation of power plants and co-bank loans for small and medium enterprises. According to Matthias Kollatz-Ahnen EIB will also support expansion of the network of public transport in the country, especially in Bucharest where air pollution has a serious impact “on the health of residents, according to a survey this week of Romanian environmental NGO Ecopolis. The EIB has invested 3.9 billion euros in Romania in the period 2006 to 2010 and the beginning of the Bank’s activities in Romania in 1990 the value of loans is 8.1 billion. In 2010, the EIB granted loans to Romania for 410 million euros.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Romania will return to growth in 2011 with an increase in GDP of 1.5 per cent.

The business climate in Germany is beneficial

Viliyana Filipova — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 11:00:14 +0000

The business climate in Germany is estimated to be extremely good and beneficial to the local companies in the industry and commerce in March. This monthly survey of the Munich research institute Ifo, confirmed that the upswing in the German economy continue. The results of this is that the German companies assess conditions for doing business in the country is still as extremely favorable. This indicates the Ifo index of business climate in Germany, which decreased to 111.1 points, but remains near its record high value of 111.3 points recorded in February. A fall in the Ifo index in March was due entirely to the expectations of companies’ business environment over the next six months worsened slightly. The index rose significantly last year, when the German economy achieved record for the past 20 years growth rates of 3.5 percent and went up over the past nine months. The economists expected the index to drop more then 110.6 points in March. He is among the most important benchmarks for prospects before the German economy, which generates about 19% of the GDP of the EU. Ifo institute indicated that a slight worsening expectations of German companies this month due to severe earthquake in Japan on 11 March and disaster in Fukushima.
The EUR lost 0.1 percent against the dollar in today’s session and currency as of 12:55 pm local time, one EUR is exchanged for 1.4159 dollars.

Moody’s may decrease the Portugal’s credit rating with 2 stages

Viliyana Filipova — Sun, 02 May 2010 11:28:42 +0000

The International rating agency Moody’s will review over the next three months the credit rating of Portugal with a possible decrease in the direction of one or two degrees, said in a statement the agency, quoted by RIA Novosti. Now Portugal’s credit rating is “Aa2″. The intention of Moody’s is continuing to assess the situation to deteriorate to government debt. In the view of analysts from the rating agency, taking into account the small size of the economy of Portugal and its poor growth performance of these public debt may not fully reflect the rating of “Aa2″. At the end of April ratings agency Standard & Poor’s lowered the long-term credit rating of Portugal with two degrees – from “A +” to “A-” to “negative” outlook. At the end of 2009 government debt of Portugal was up nearly 77 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country, for comparison, the external debt of Greece has 120% of GDP. Meanwhile, analysts note that in Portugal the threat can come from many large private sector debt, which exceeded the indicator for Greece. According to forecasts by the European Commission (EC) GDP growth this year Portugal will be 0.5 percent and for 2011 – 0.7%.
At the same time, public debt will continue to increase, says the EC, at the end of 2010 will be approximately 86% of GDP at the end of 2011 will reach 91 percent of GDP.

Italy economy contracted in 2009 with 5%

Viliyana Filipova — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 18:14:38 +0000

The Gross domestic product (GDP) of Italy had fallen to 5% in 2009, while the budget deficit reached 5.3 percent of GDP, figures released today data from the Italian statistical office. In 2008, the country’s budget deficit was 2.7 percent of GDP, while the central bank forecast last month for the economy were to shrink by 4.8 percent. Also announced in February forecasts of the Italian Statistical Institute are to increase GDP by 1% for 2010, a deficit for the year amounted to 5.1 percent of Gross domestic product (GDP). Earlier today it became clear that the unemployment rate in Italy has risen in January to 8.6 percent from 8.5 percent in December. Announced data coincided with the average expectations of economists.
Total 2.14 million people in the country were unemployed in the first month of 2010. Throughout the European Union the number of unemployed in January was nearly 23 million people.

Ukrainian economy shrank by 7% in fourth quarter

Viliyana Filipova — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 11:00:44 +0000

The economy of Ukraine has contracted by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2009 over the same period the previous year. This was the smallest decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the country last year, police Bloomberg. The main reason for this probably lies in increasing exports in the last months of 2009, which gives impetus to the industrial production of Eastern European countries. Preliminary statistics do not give details of individual components of GDP. For comparison, the GDP of Ukraine decreased more strongly by 15.9 percent in the third quarter, 17.8 percent in the second and 20.3 percent in the first three months of 2009. Ukraine plunged into recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, after the global economic crisis undermines demand for steel, which occupies a central place in its exports. Meanwhile, in 2009 require the Government to grant aid of 20 of the largest banks in the country. Ukrainian bracelet is impaired by 42% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of September 2008 as the political crisis in the country has caused the IMF to stop to pay the loan from EUR 16,8 billion allocated last year to enable Ukraine to finance its budget. According to economists RBS Ukrainian economy remains in poor condition despite the appreciation of the metals and the depreciation of local currency last year. During today’s foreign exchange session one Ukrainian bracelet be exchanged for 8.0215 U.S. dollars.
Industrial production of Ukraine surged by 9.8 percent for the quarter to December, after having contracted by 22.8 percent for the previous three months. Most increased production of metals. The Ukrainian government expects a decline in GDP of 12-12,5% for the entire 2009

The U.S. economy with strong growth of 5.7%

Viliyana Filipova — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:38:47 +0000

The U.S. economy has a serious request to exit the severe economic crisis, it became clear from data on gross domestic product in the last quarter of 2009. It grew by 5,7 per cent in seasonally adjusted and aligned on an annual basis. This is the sharp rise in U.S. GDP by the end of 2003 onwards. The increase comes after the U.S. economic growth of 2,2 per cent in the third quarter of 2009. Analysts’ estimates were for growth of 5.4 per cent. Despite the high score, however it is too early for definitive evaluations Since several revisions to the data. Although over the last two quarters of 2009 to the U.S. economy grew for the whole last year reported a decline of 2,4 per cent. This is the worst performance of the U.S. economy from 1942 onwards, when it was registered a decline of 10.9 percent. Among the positive data make a bad impression with business investment, which suffered its biggest decline from 1942 to date, writes Market Watch. About two-thirds achieved in the last quarter of the year growth was due to selling of stocks in the economy. If they are removed from the calculations, the estimated growth of 2,2 per cent annually, which is a signal of continued weakness in the U.S.
For the period consumer spending grew by 2 per cent, slowing the increase from the third quarter, when growth was 2.9 percent. At current prices in dollar terms the U.S. economy grew by 6.4 per cent in the last quarter, equivalent to an annual basis, this makes 14.5 trillion. dollars. For the entire 2009 GDP of the United States was 14,3 trillion. dollars.

Growth in the EU statistics reported

Viliyana Filipova — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:40:13 +0000

The Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4 percent in the euro area (EU-16) and by 0.3% across the EU in the third quarter of 2009, said the community’s statistical office Eurostat. In the second quarter of 2009 growth was -0.2% in the euro area and -0.3% in the EU27. Compared with the third quarter of 2008, GDP declined by 4.1% in the Eurozone and 4.3% in the EU27, after -4.8% and -5.0% respectively for the previous quarter a year ago. In the third quarter of 2009, consumer spending fell by 0.2%, at 0% and -0.1% respectively for the previous quarter. Investments decreased by 0.4% in the eurozone and by 0.5% in the EU27 (-1.7% in reported and -2.5% the previous quarter). Exports increased by 2.9% in the Eurozone and 2.4% in the EU27 (-1.3% respectively at -1.4 percent and the previous three months). Imports increased by 2.6% in the eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU27 (in-2, respectively, 9% in both zones). To compare the U.S. GDP increased by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2009, after -0.2% in the second quarter of 2009.
In Japan GDP increased by 1.2% in the third quarter of 2009, after an increase from 0.7 percent the previous quarter.