Financial Communique » economy

The Turkish economy reported 8.8% increase in Q2 2011

Viliyana Filipova — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 15:43:34 +0000

Turkey has a higher than expected growth in the second quarter. The growth of the economy by 8.8% yoy but deepening fears that the expansion is unbalanced and puts the country at risk from external shocks, says Financial Times The data published on Monday revealed a decline in the rate of growth compared to the first quarter, but well above market expectations for growth of 6-8%.
“The economic activity is slowing, but the rate of delay may not be sufficient to correct imbalances in the Turkish economy, such as the growing current account deficit”, said Ozgur Altag, chief economist at BGC Partners in Istanbul. Published on Monday also details the current account deficit revealed a hole in the rate of 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country for 12 months until the end of July. The deficit occurred despite the tourism boom in Turkey. Altag indicates that the country is vulnerable to external shocks and the drying up of capital flows, since 60% of the current account deficit is financed by portfolio investment and unidentified items that central banks defined as net errors and omissions.
“These items are the most uncertain way of financing the current account deficit”, he said. “This is an unreliable short-term capital”. Among other factors, economic growth in the second quarter was supported by 13.2 percent expansion in the construction sector, 13% growth in trade and 14.3% increase in the financial sector. The GDP growth in the first quarter was revised upwards to 11.7% from 11%. This means that growth in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year reached 10.2%. Even the growth in the second quarter compared to the first for which the central bank predicts it will be close to zero, was remarkably positive – seasonally weighted growth of 1.3%.

The Chinese economy gives signs of cooling

Viliyana Filipova — Wed, 11 May 2011 12:33:21 +0000

The Chinese inflation slows in April, and this, combined with some other economic indicators signal a cooling economy. This fact in turn would alleviate pressure on the authorities in Beijing to keep a tighter monetary policy and currency. In April, the appreciation of life in China is 5.3 per cent per annum. A month earlier, inflation reached 32-month high of 5.4 percent. Thus, signals appear that in the second half of 2011 can expect a weakening of inflationary pressures, analysts. Food prices, which are a major driver of inflation generally fell by 0.4 percent in April on a monthly basis. Annual increase was reported by 11.4 per cent. The official target of government is the annual average inflation in 2011 should not exceed 4 per cent. For this purpose, since October the central bank increased the base rate four times and the minimum reserve requirements were very high. In industrial production and retail sales data are also published today, is reported greater than expected slowdown. These are additional signs that economic growth will cool. The industrial production growth reported by 13.4 percent yoy in April, after one month earlier was moving with an increase of 14.8 per cent. Expectations index were to rise by 14.7 per cent. The retail sales are also slowing its growth – from 17.4 percent in March to 17.1 percent in April. If the projections were for speeding up the increase to 17.6 per cent yoy.
The money supply in China as measured by M2 monetary aggregate, has its weakest growth in the last 29 months. It increased by 15.3 per cent against forecasts for an increase of 16.5 per cent. All this will likely weaken pressure on the country to change the monetary policy towards an increase in the rate of local currency. In April yuan rose by 0.9 percent against the dollar since early this year appreciation is 1.5 percent. From June 2010 onwards, when the reform was implemented in the formation of the exchange rate in China, the yuan has appreciated by 5 percent against the U.S. dollar.

The crude oil got cheaper for the second serial day

Viliyana Filipova — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 11:23:53 +0000

The crude oil fell for a second day in today’s electronic trading in New York under the influence of deteriorating attitudes of market participants about the outlook for the economy in the U.S. and the eurozone. In yesterday’s regular session on the New York Petroleum Exchange oil fell 2.3 percent to 107.12 dollars a barrel, after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s gave a negative outlook on U.S. government debt. In the prior trading day, U.S. light crude cheaper for a further 0.1 percent to 107.06 dollars per barrel. The May oil futures expire today, but actively traded futures for June delivery traded, down from 57 cents to 107.13 dollars per barrel. Harvested in the North Sea Brent lost 1.5 percent yesterday to 121.61 dollars a barrel, its lowest price level from 12 April onwards. In today’s e-commerce price rises slightly to 121.70 dollars per barrel. The gold for June delivery, which almost reached a record 1,500 dollars an ounce in yesterday’s session, cheaper by 0.1% to 1 490.20 dollars an ounce.

Weak data for the services sector feared the US indexes

Viliyana Filipova — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 19:29:05 +0000

A disappointing data on U.S. economy dominant services sector brought hesitation among investors on Wall Street at the beginning of today’s session. The indexes changed direction several times to move, which contribute to raising interest rates in China, which surprised financial markets. Hour and a half after the start of trade price-weighted Dow Jones IA index added 0.1 percent to 12,419 points, while the broad S & P 500 also rose by 0.1 percent to 1335 points. The index of companies by the exchange Nasdaq – Nasdaq Composite, moved more tangible by 0,4 percent to 2799 points, led by the good performance of technology companies. The reluctance of investors came after news of another reduction in the rating of government securities of Portugal. The first U.S. economic data this week showed that the services sector, which is leading the U.S. economy has lost momentum in March. This index showed business activity in the sector, which fell unexpectedly to 57.3 compared to 59.7 points in February. Market expectations had its value to rise slightly to 59.8 points. The services sector growth marks, when the indicator passes the level of 50 points. The session ended on Monday with minor changes of indices in the absence of data on the U.S. economy.
The today’s increases in the technology sector came after the stock exchange operator Nasdaq OMX Group announced that it will balance its structure dominated by technology companies Index Nasdaq-100. To that end, Apple’s weight in the index fell by almost 40% to 12.3% from current 20.5 percent. By contrast, will increase the weight in the index of companies like Google, Intel, Microsoft and Oracle. The stocks of Apple decreased their price with 0.3 percent to 340.21 dollars. The stocks of computer chip manufacturer National Semiconductor expensive, however, with 71.4 percent to 24.11 dollars after the company agreed to be acquired by Texas Instruments for 6.5 billion dollars in cash. Shortly before the end of today’s session the Federal Reserve will publish its report of last meeting on 15 March.

Crude oil may have the worst week till September

Viliyana Filipova — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 08:05:50 +0000

The crude oil prices remained almost unchanged during today’s e-commerce and is on track to finish the week with its largest loss in the last three months. Subside the concerns about the fiscal crisis in Ireland and the stability of the banking sector increased price of oil by 1.8 percent yesterday. The governor of the Bank of Ireland Patrick Honohan said yesterday that it expects the country to receive financial assistance from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, which enhance the rate of the euro against the dollar and make it more attractive investment in commodities that are traded in U.S. dollars. The good data on the factory sector and the index of leading indicators in the U.S. also reinforced the optimism of investors about the economy. The U.S. light crude for December delivery traded almost unchanged at a level of 81.76 dollars per barrel in today’s electronic trading on the New York Petroleum Exchange. Its price rose 1.41 dollars or 1.8 percent, to 81.85 dollars a barrel yesterday after falling during the previous four days. More actively traded oil futures for January delivery today more expensive by 44 cents to 82.86 dollars per barrel. The crude oil prices have jumped 3.7 percent this year, but earlier this week fell by 3.1 per cent. The reason for this was Ireland’s debt crisis and fears of monetary tightening in China, which is the largest user of energy resources in the world.
The petroleum Exchange of London Brent for January delivery rose 1.77 dollars or 2.1 percent, to 85.05 dollars a barrel yesterday. In today’s electronic trading price decreased by 0.2 percent to 84.91 dollars per barrel. The price of gold for immediate delivery, meanwhile, remained almost unchanged at a level of 1,352 dollars an ounce.

Philippines economy with high increase

Viliyana Filipova — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 12:55:00 +0000

The Philippines economy unexpectedly accelerated its growth rate in the second quarter, which reached its levels before the financial crisis in mid-2007. Consumer spending and the state contribute to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country by 7.9 percent annually. During the first three months of this year Philippine economy also reported high annual growth of 7.8 per cent. The increase was more than expected growth of 6.3 per cent and is the largest of the second quarter of 2007. Philippine economy proved more resilient to slowing world economy in comparison with neighboring Malaysia and Thailand, where growth rates fell in the second quarter. Analysts say the country’s low inflation will allow the Philippine central bank to maintain its liberal monetary policy during this month. The base rate in the Philippines fell to a record low level since 4 percent last year, expectations are that it will not change until the end of this year. This, combined with rapid rates of economic growth is expected to give impetus to the local stock exchange and the Philippine peso. Liberal fiscal and monetary policy is also aimed at raising incomes of the population, as estimated by the World Bank one in four people in the country lives on less than 1.25 dollars a day.
The main stock index in the Philippines PSEi jumped 1.2 percent after good GDP data and the Philippine peso rose over 2% against the U.S. dollar. Interest rates on four-year government bonds fell while at its lowest level in historical perspective. The aim of the Philippine Government is to achieve economic growth of 5 to 6% within this year and another 7-8% next year. In 2009, GDP grew by 1.1% minimum, which is the lowest growth for the past 11 years.

The Russian economy is out of recession

Viliyana Filipova — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:43:39 +0000

The Russian economy out of recession and began to recover, Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin during an extensive report today on the work of the government last year exported to the State Duma, Russian media reported. According to Putin recession ended the Russian economy and now also the conditions for progress are very good. According to the Russian prime minister that does not mean that the country has gone out of crisis but the recession has ended. Putin reasons that make those findings justify its latest data on the development of Russian economy. He stated that preliminary results for first quarter suggest optimism – the growth of industrial production reached 5.8 percent, while real incomes have risen by 7.4 percent. Russian Prime Minister added that it is very likely the official forecast of growth of gross domestic product for 2010 from 3.1% to be exceeded and it reaches about 4%. Putin noted that the key sectors of the real economy and financial system out of the global test and enter into good shape. Putin stressed in his speech that it is necessary to keep the trend from last year to decrease inflation, when it slowed to 8.8 percent (the lowest level of 18 years) for this year is on average 5-6 %.
Russian Prime Minister also said that it is premature to abolish the flat tax of 13% since its introduction has increased the collection. Progressive income tax can be returned when the administration begins to work properly and taxes begin to be collected as follows, is said Putin.

Russian economy with the first increase since 2008

Viliyana Filipova — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 13:33:00 +0000

The Russian economy grew in the first quarter of this year for the first time since 2008 thanks to the recovery of this industry and services, and improving labor market. On an annual basis for the first quarter GDP grew by 0.5 per cent since the fourth quarter of last year declined by 2.6 percent, data show the indicator for the economy of VTB Capital – the investment bank unit VTB. Only in March the Russian economy grew by 1.1 per cent growth from 0.5 percent in February, the index shows. Increased demand for raw materials and larger consumer spending helped the country to escape from its worst recession since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to official statistics in the fourth quarter the economy shrank by 3.8 percent annually after a decline of 7.7 per cent in the third. For the year reported a decrease in GDP by 7.9 per cent. According to data from the state rail operator transporting goods by rail, which is considered indicative of changes in industrial production jumped by 12.7 per cent yoy in the first quarter. In February retail sales increased by 1.3 per cent annually, while unemployment fell to 8.6 per cent from 9.2 per cent. Capital investment and unemployment are “weak links” in the restoration, said last month, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei eyelid. VTB Capital indicator calculated on the basis of surveys of business conditions in manufacturing and services sectors.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts increased forecasts growth of real gross domestic product in 2010 to 6.5 percent from 5.3 percent expected. In their recovery in consumption this year will continue to be strong and prolonged due to the increase of pensions, slower inflation and decreasing levels of savings of the population in terms of lower interest rates. Moreover, growth will be boosted by government measures that will be terminated this year, considered by the bank. For 2011 from Morgan Stanley predict that the Russian economy will grow by 3.2 percent in the previous expected to grow by 2.8 percent.

Italy economy contracted in 2009 with 5%

Viliyana Filipova — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 18:14:38 +0000

The Gross domestic product (GDP) of Italy had fallen to 5% in 2009, while the budget deficit reached 5.3 percent of GDP, figures released today data from the Italian statistical office. In 2008, the country’s budget deficit was 2.7 percent of GDP, while the central bank forecast last month for the economy were to shrink by 4.8 percent. Also announced in February forecasts of the Italian Statistical Institute are to increase GDP by 1% for 2010, a deficit for the year amounted to 5.1 percent of Gross domestic product (GDP). Earlier today it became clear that the unemployment rate in Italy has risen in January to 8.6 percent from 8.5 percent in December. Announced data coincided with the average expectations of economists.
Total 2.14 million people in the country were unemployed in the first month of 2010. Throughout the European Union the number of unemployed in January was nearly 23 million people.

Ukrainian economy shrank by 7% in fourth quarter

Viliyana Filipova — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 11:00:44 +0000

The economy of Ukraine has contracted by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2009 over the same period the previous year. This was the smallest decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the country last year, police Bloomberg. The main reason for this probably lies in increasing exports in the last months of 2009, which gives impetus to the industrial production of Eastern European countries. Preliminary statistics do not give details of individual components of GDP. For comparison, the GDP of Ukraine decreased more strongly by 15.9 percent in the third quarter, 17.8 percent in the second and 20.3 percent in the first three months of 2009. Ukraine plunged into recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, after the global economic crisis undermines demand for steel, which occupies a central place in its exports. Meanwhile, in 2009 require the Government to grant aid of 20 of the largest banks in the country. Ukrainian bracelet is impaired by 42% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of September 2008 as the political crisis in the country has caused the IMF to stop to pay the loan from EUR 16,8 billion allocated last year to enable Ukraine to finance its budget. According to economists RBS Ukrainian economy remains in poor condition despite the appreciation of the metals and the depreciation of local currency last year. During today’s foreign exchange session one Ukrainian bracelet be exchanged for 8.0215 U.S. dollars.
Industrial production of Ukraine surged by 9.8 percent for the quarter to December, after having contracted by 22.8 percent for the previous three months. Most increased production of metals. The Ukrainian government expects a decline in GDP of 12-12,5% for the entire 2009