Which balloon will burst after Dubai? How the threat of credit echoed Arab Emirates? Is it an isolated phenomenon or a debt crisis heralded a new wave of bankruptcies? These are questions that are trying to find solutions to two analysts from New York Times. So far, investors do not succumb to panic, but the big banks have granted loans to fund state the investment – Dubai World and its subsidiary development company Nakheel anxiously assessing their potential vulnerability to a possible chain reaction of bankruptcies if Emirates not fulfill their promises to help. Does not happen, which was declared by the common central bank of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to give money to the fund and the construction company, not to fall into a liquidity crisis, with huge debts may prove to be not only individual corporations and banks, but governments and objectives. All creditors from the Baltic to the Mediterranean looking for money, although theirs is the blame for the unprecedented credit boom. Already are piling up deficits in the budgets of not a few countries that drew money for anti-crisis programs. Government debt is growing even in a country like Germany, which has long been a bastion of strict fiscal policy. The external debt of Bulgaria, Hungary and the Baltic countries grew as part of GDP, say the authors of the New York Times. However, they believe that it can be expected similar to the Dubai situation in other countries of the world. But that does not mean that nations will go to save individual companies from bankruptcy.
The refusal of the official authorities in Dubai to ensure the repayment of indebtedness of the state fund Dubai World could create a precedent and make other governments to throw lightly arbitrariness of the fate of companies that are expected to receive any such guarantee. Unlikely to repeat what happened before a few months in the U.S. when they were bailed out banks, insurance companies, automobile giants. However, analysts predict the New York Times that if it comes to a wave of bankruptcies that can happen soon after two years, when governments will be should abandon its anti-crisis program, because you will need to look at social problems of its citizens. According Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who cites New York Times, this time in the developed countries which are burdened by the accumulated credits will refuse to help emerging markets. Only in 2010 these emerging markets will have to find about $ 65 billion to pay its debts. Dubai And just suggested that it most likely will happen. On the indebtedness of corporations, the American daily newspaper analysts believe that the managers of these corporations have to seek fresh capital to be repaid over $ 200 billion over the next two years. Estimates show that half of that amount accounted for by companies from Russia and the United Arab Emirates. According to data from JPMorgan Chase in the period from 2006 to 2008, Russian companies have taken loans from banks or shares are listed for $ 220 billion, representing about 13 percent of the GDP of Russia. Loans to companies in the UAE account for 53 percent of GDP ($ 135.6 billion), and companies of Kazakhstan are debts for 44% of GDP ($ 44 billion). In Russia the most worrying situation in the aluminum giant Rusal, which has debt of $ 16 billion. Finally, analysts from New York Times noted that after it became clear that there will be a restriction of credit debt of Dubai World, the value of loans to Russian companies have risen.